Swansea, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

161
FXUS65 KVEF 100338
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
838 PM PDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warming trends continue through Friday as temperatures
reach 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Some relief arrives this
weekend as a passing system pulls temperatures closer to normal
and brings gusty winds. Warm, dry conditions persist into early
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...After an unseasonably warm afternoon, temperatures are
slowly on their way down early this evening. Lows tonight
expected to range from the 40s and lower 50s across higher terrain
to 60s elsewhere, with lower 70s expected in Death Valley where
today`s high temperature hit 101F, providing some semblance of
relief before another round of hot temperatures tomorrow.
Intermittently breezy winds early this evening will diminish after
sunset with the loss of mixing, with light winds expected tonight
beneath a building ridge that will dictate sensible weather
patterns across the region through the end of the week. The
forecast this evening remains on track, with no updates warranted
at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM PDT Wed Apr 9 2025...

.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

Early-season heat continues to be the main story of the short-term
with daily records threatened. After a warm start, highs today are
forecast to be 10-15 degrees above typical values. As high pressure
continues to build tomorrow, temperature anomalies increase further.
Hottest conditions expected Friday as the ridge begins to shift east
but increased winds and vertical mixing compensate. Friday`s temps
soar as high as 15-20 degrees above climatology, with the Colorado
River Valley likely seeing its first 100s of the season. With
widespread minor to moderate HeatRisk, main concerns are with
individuals sensitive to heat, particularly those without access to
adequate cooling/hydration. However, with only one day of
somewhat similar temperatures earlier this season, it`s still
possible for folks with regular heat tolerances to get caught off
guard.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

Over the weekend, the ridge gets flattened and pushed out of our
area by a shortwave moving through the PacNW. As this occurs,
temperatures are forecast to decrease while winds increase.
Strongest winds anticipated Saturday when pressure gradients are
maximized. Peak gusts should be in the 25-40 mph range over most of
the area, with a 30-40% chance of 40+ mph gusts along the I-15
corridor. The progressive nature of the PacNW shortwave means that
the gusty conditions will be short-lived as breezes weaken on
Sunday. However, with the ridge no longer overhead, temperatures
drop ~10 degrees from their peak on Friday. While still above
normal, temps on Sunday will be much closer to typical April values
as highs range from the upper 70s to low 90s.

As we head into the work week, the pattern becomes much more
uncertain as ensembles exhibit large variability. The main feature
to watch seems to be a cutoff low (or series of cutoff lows) well
off the CA coast in the east Pacific. The evolution of this feature
and how effectively it can undercut the ridge that redevelops over
the Western US. Regardless, continued dry and warm conditions appear
likely through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Quiet
weather is expected through Thursday night. The only concern will be
persistent east to southeast winds Thursday, which will occasionally
flirt with 10 knots, and a few gusts cannot be ruled out.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Quiet weather is
expected through Thursday, with wind gusts less than 20 knots except
over the higher mountain ridges northwest of Interstate 15 and in
the Owens Valley.
&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX            THU, APR 10    FRI, APR 11
               Record (Yr)    Record (Yr)

Las Vegas      91 (2014)*     93 (2023)*
Bishop         91 (1989)      86 (2018)*
Needles        103 (1989)     102 (1936)*
Daggett        99 (1989)      93 (2014)*
Kingman        91 (1907)*     96 (1936)
Desert Rock    91 (1989)*     87 (2014)*
Death Valley   110 (1989)     108 (1989)

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN       THU, APR 10    FRI, APR 11
               Record (Yr)    Record (Yr)

Las Vegas      70 (2002)*     72 (2018)
Bishop         48 (1951)      55 (1989)
Needles        70 (1989)      72 (2014)
Daggett        63 (1989)*     68 (1989)
Kingman        59 (1989)      66 (1989)
Desert Rock    63 (1989)      66 (2018)
Death Valley   80 (1972)      80 (2018)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Phillipson
DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Morgan

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